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Outside Asylum Take a walk, smell the roses. Any topic is fine, save people bashing. |
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Outside Asylum Take a walk, smell the roses. Any topic is fine, save people bashing. |
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In Reply to: Here is an interesting summary of the effects of oil price increases from the CBO in 1981 GG. posted by Jim Pearce on June 13, 2007 at 06:43:29:
It was short and global circumstances were unusual. That means it was a noisy period. Models need to be tested against statistically significant, relatively noise-free datasets or you risk drawing erroneous conclusions. All that can be concluded from this period is that a drop in energy consumption coincided with a drop in GDP. No causality can be established, and even the degree of correlation is very low.
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Follow Ups
- Actually, that period makes a lousy test for models - GliderGuider 06/13/0707:06:08 06/13/07 (3)
- How unusual for global circumstances to be unusual. - Jim Pearce 07:20:24 06/13/07 (2)
- We're not talking here about a global dataset - GliderGuider 08:46:12 06/13/07 (1)
- If you want to do something useful GG... - Jim Pearce 09:05:43 06/13/07 (0)
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