In Reply to: How certain are that the peak is here? posted by rditmars on March 2, 2007 at 10:48:32:
As long as demand is not perceived as irrevocably outstripping supply, price will continue to be driven by above-ground factors and expectations that the future will mirror the past.Prices right now are reflecting a tightness in the market, which is as close as the market can get to recognizing Peak Oil. The futures markets are in contango, and contrary to what Vaclav Smil (a well-know PO denier) says, if you had bought a barrel of oil in 1999 and held it until the middle of 2006 you'd have made a return of 20% per year. That sounds like some sort of a price signal to me, though I think it has more to do with the perceptions of above-ground issues like wars, terrorism and lack of investment than geological factors.
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Follow Ups
- The problem with price - GliderGuider 03/2/0711:19:21 03/2/07 (0)