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Outside Asylum Take a walk, smell the roses. Any topic is fine, save people bashing. |
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Outside Asylum Take a walk, smell the roses. Any topic is fine, save people bashing. |
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In Reply to: You simply don't want to be confused by facts. posted by DWPC on March 1, 2007 at 09:51:52:
Cantarell dropped 1 mbpd last year. KSA is pumping 1 mbpd less than a year ago. The North Sea is declining by 8% per year. US output is declining by 3% per year. Canadian output is declining, except for the tar sands. According to Chevron, 33 of the world's 48 oil-producing countries is in decline. Kashagan has been delayed by two years. Thunder Horse isn't back on line yet. ANWR isn't even on the horizon. The world's output of Crude+Condensate has been trending down for the past two years.Every well in the world that is in production is depleting, as is normal. The question is, can we bring enough new supplies on line in time to replace that depletion? Chris Skrebowski maintains the highly regarded Megaprojects database, a very complete list of all the new projects due to come on line over the next 5 years or so with production over 40,000 bpd. Here's an analysis blending his data and current depletion trends:
The author's comment is as follows: "These forecasts have been updated using Chris Skrebowski’s Feb 2007 Petroleum Review megaprojects database. The chart shows forecast crude oil and condensate (C&C) to 2011 with a decline rate of -0.5%/year. This decline rate is forecast because increased production from Angola, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada (tar), Kazakhstan and Nigeria will not be enough to offset declining production from the rest of the world." 
Now, the one thing that jumps out at me is that this is a best case estimate for production replacement, and the trend is still down. Skrebowski'd database doesn't take into account the delays at Thunder Horse or Kashagan, for instance, and any project that slips is going to steepen the decline. Projects rarely come in ahead of schedule or over their production estimates these days, largely because the project conditions are getting more and more difficult.
We will see flat of production for the next few years largely thanks to increases in Natural Gas Plant Liquids and biofuels, that all get counted in addition to this basic C+C production. But as the underlying depletion of the C+C steepens, the Red Queen will eventually lose her race.
The big problem for oil importers like the UK and the USA is the risk that oil exports will fall at a faster rate than overall production, due to rising demand and falling production in exporting countries. Such a situation is already playing out between the US and Mexico.
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Follow Ups
- We will probably be able to stay on the current production plateau for another 3 years or so. - GliderGuider 03/1/0711:56:54 03/1/07 (0)
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