In Reply to: Peak Oil pundits posted by Bruce from DC on January 19, 2007 at 13:05:07:
Cantarell is one of the world's Big Four fields. PEMEX has recently admitted it has entered serious decline, and one of their officials has even quoted a 40% per year decline rate. This has been confirmed by Mexican industry insiders. Since the field produces 2 Mbpd (which makes up all of their exports to the USA, and 15% of total US imports) this is serious bidness.Worse, Cantarell represents 60% of Mexico's total oil production, and their oil exports generate 40% of all their federal funding. A crash of 1.5 MBPD over two years is a nightmare scenario for Mexico. They are headed for hard times within two years.
Fortunately, the US can turn to ethanol. 20% of this year's corn crop is being bought up by subsidized ethanol manufactureres. By coincidence, that's the exact proportion of the US corn crop that's normally exported, much of it to Mexico.
So the Mexican economy implodes and corn sales from the USA dry up. No jobs, no food. What direction to the resulting migrants travel? And when they arrive, there just happen to be $385M worth of KBR detention camps waiting for them.
You can pontificate about supply and demand all you like, but it's with situations like this that the crisis will actually unfold, bit by bit.
From the linked news story:
The contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to expand existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs, KBR said. The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster, the company said.
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Follow Ups
- Keep your eye on Mexico - GliderGuider 01/19/0717:54:19 01/19/07 (3)
- Keep your eye on their constitution - Road Warrior 08:43:31 01/20/07 (1)
- The time frame seems a little short for them to invest their way out of this one. - GliderGuider 12:42:35 01/20/07 (0)
- only money can buy happiness - petew 18:15:19 01/19/07 (0)