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The specific temperature is not the determinant.

The point is that the average temperature rise was uniform and very widespread. Whether it was 5C or 4 or 3 isn't the determinant of whether it fits the model.

But as I pointed out, when one includes the effects of polar amplification due to albedo changes, even 5C fits. The current thinking incorporates a steep initial temperature rise due to reflectivity changes as the polar ice melts, followed by a generally lower slope as the threshold effects are incorporated. This means that half the ultimate rise (remember that 11C) could be achieved in less than half the time. Since the various limits and rates are all fairly imprecise at this time, there is no way to rule the observation out of bounds due to improbability.


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