In Reply to: I see you cooling down now... you should have done it before writing your dreck posted by Victor Khomenko on January 18, 2007 at 12:07:01:
30 years - from the midpoint of the base period? Well, OK if you say so - it's still not part of the debate. You introduced it as a red herring , apparently to make it seem as though I was advocating for this map as proof of GW.As I pointed out above, an average continental temperature rise of 5C within 30 years from now is entirely within the scope of the current models.
One additional suggestion is for you to read up on the current thinking about positive feedback loops in climate change - especially methane outgassing and albedo changes. The models still don't incorporate those, so the current thinking among those who do this sort of a thing for a living is that the models are underestimating the temperature rise. The next version of the IPCC report due out next month is rumoured to address this issue.
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Follow Ups
- Cooling down? Nah, I'm just getting warmed up, globally speaking - GliderGuider 01/18/0712:38:56 01/18/07 (11)
- Man, you are quick with your data - you just make it on the fly, as you go - Victor Khomenko 12:45:07 01/18/07 (10)
- Your objections would hold more water if I were using this map as evidence of GW. - GliderGuider 12:56:12 01/18/07 (9)
- The funny thing is - it very well might be the evidence of GW... BUT... not the proof of YOUR MODEL - Victor Khomenko 13:04:04 01/18/07 (8)
- How do you determine if they overemphasize the human effect? - GliderGuider 13:35:10 01/18/07 (7)
- He-he... I believe I do - Victor Khomenko 14:06:13 01/18/07 (6)
- Could you point me to one of those "noise level" estimates? - GliderGuider 14:21:56 01/18/07 (5)
- Look through the archives - they have been posted here many times before - Victor Khomenko 14:40:46 01/18/07 (4)
- You're right, I was just fucking around. - GliderGuider 16:41:01 01/18/07 (3)
- Same here... - Victor Khomenko 16:54:00 01/18/07 (2)
- You'll have to wait, I'm afraid - GliderGuider 16:58:55 01/18/07 (1)
- OK, I'll consider voting for a dem, then... - Victor Khomenko 17:07:26 01/18/07 (0)