In Reply to: Running away from the truth? posted by Victor Khomenko on January 18, 2007 at 11:25:44:
Sorry you felt bamboozled. I was just trying to be precise.GW simulations like those linked below, estimate a global average temperature rise of between 1.5C and 6C (3F to 11F) by 2100. Keep in mind that this is a model of the global mean temperature. The polar amplification effect will cause greater rises the further north you go. Estimates I've read project a temperature rise of 1.5x to 2x the mean temperature towards the poles, with a much lower rise near the equator. So that could mean a polar temperature rise of anywhere from 2 to 9C. Given the normal variability of continental climates, an average temperature rises of 5C well before the end of the modeled period (2100) within a continental land mass do not seem impossible, especially if albedo-driven positive feedbacks come into play.
Just to be clear, this temperature map says absolutely nothing about global warming one way or the other, and it's not evidence for a 5C rise in global temperature. It is evidence that we hads a really warm December, which we all knew anyway.
And just where did that 30 years come from? Nobody said anything about 30 years. Did you just stick that in at the last second to make your BS sound more authoritative?
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Follow Ups
- Lord you're full of shit and vinegar today. - GliderGuider 01/18/0711:53:18 01/18/07 (13)
- I see you cooling down now... you should have done it before writing your dreck - Victor Khomenko 12:07:01 01/18/07 (12)
- Cooling down? Nah, I'm just getting warmed up, globally speaking - GliderGuider 12:38:56 01/18/07 (11)
- Man, you are quick with your data - you just make it on the fly, as you go - Victor Khomenko 12:45:07 01/18/07 (10)
- Your objections would hold more water if I were using this map as evidence of GW. - GliderGuider 12:56:12 01/18/07 (9)
- The funny thing is - it very well might be the evidence of GW... BUT... not the proof of YOUR MODEL - Victor Khomenko 13:04:04 01/18/07 (8)
- How do you determine if they overemphasize the human effect? - GliderGuider 13:35:10 01/18/07 (7)
- He-he... I believe I do - Victor Khomenko 14:06:13 01/18/07 (6)
- Could you point me to one of those "noise level" estimates? - GliderGuider 14:21:56 01/18/07 (5)
- Look through the archives - they have been posted here many times before - Victor Khomenko 14:40:46 01/18/07 (4)
- You're right, I was just fucking around. - GliderGuider 16:41:01 01/18/07 (3)
- Same here... - Victor Khomenko 16:54:00 01/18/07 (2)
- You'll have to wait, I'm afraid - GliderGuider 16:58:55 01/18/07 (1)
- OK, I'll consider voting for a dem, then... - Victor Khomenko 17:07:26 01/18/07 (0)