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Do you really want to argue this?

Yes temperatures vary. That's why pictures of regional climates are built up out of long term averages from large numbers of reporting stations (not single points like you cited). The map I posted is just one of the ways such data can be presented. It's not a prediction, it's a representation of those facts you're so fond of. It says the land masses in the Northern Hemisphere were, on average, much warmer than the observed average calculated for that same month over many years. No predictions, just facts.

The theory comes in when we ask the question, "What does this mean?" and the predictions come in when we ask, "What does this imply for the future?"

The importance of this map is that the facts it presents fit the observations we'd expect if the theory of Global Warming is correct (regardless of whether it's anthropogenic or not): greater average positive temperature anomalies towards the poles and over continental land masses, with the area covered by the anomalies being a significant part of the hemisphere.

Is it predictive? There's the rub. While it is more predictive than your stupid single-site example, it is only one month of one year. As such it's suggestive (because it fits the expectations so well), but not conclusive (because it's only one temporal datum).

How much weight should we give it? That depends on whether we think the theory is correct, and even then on whether we think the upper limits of the currently proposed average temperature rise and timescale are plausible. If any of those don't apply of course, you will tend to discount the observation.

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  Kimber Kable  

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