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In Reply to: War in Ukraine posted by Victor Khomenko on March 18, 2022 at 10:11:10:
Not to say that couldn't happen but it's kind of a "when pigs fly" situation for V Putin. If, as some pundits and observers say, the Russian military is rife with corruption and incompetence, then maybe ten years is more like it should Putin survive that long.
One of the most consistent critiques of the Russian military is that it lacks competent NCO leadership. It will be more than difficult to develop the conscripts and low level ranks into an effective fighting force. The US Army and Marine Corp both heavily rely on their NCOs to make things work right and for the most part, they do. Junior officers are taught or learn the hard way that a good NCO is worth more to their survival than a college degree or even a ring from their respective academies.
Current estimates are that Russia has 75% of their BTGs engaged in the invasion and they haven't been able to achieve most of their primary objectives yet. Losses of their main battle tanks and APCs are stacking up and at best, the military will have to regroup their forces but that won't mean that the new formations will be able to work as cohesive and effective units. Russian forces may control some towns and a kilometer on either side of the highways but supply lines are vulnerable and their lines of communication can be described as questionable.
The Russian military can still carry out a brutal, grinding war dependent on its artillery and missiles to devastate cities and infrastructure but their efforts are looking more and more like a Pyrrhic victory if that to the rest of the world. It will take a while to replace their military leadership with competent personnel and a lot of money to replace or repair their equipment which is sometimes being donated to the Ukrainian side.
I don't doubt that as long as Putin sits in the Kremlin that Ukraine will be in danger. Even if the Russian troops withdraw completely, the costs of maintaining an adequate military to resist future Russian adventures will be in competition with rebuilding the damage already done. Europe and the US will find it hard to financially support Ukraine's efforts for an indeterminate time. So it's a grim damned if you do and damned if you don't for Mr Zelenskyy and any of his future successors.
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Follow Ups
- RE: War in Ukraine - Postal Grunt 03/18/2211:01:07 03/18/22 (1)
- Well stated - Victor Khomenko 11:11:41 03/18/22 (0)
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