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RE: US manufacturing: boom or bust? Well, that depends on whether or not

Posted by RGA (R) on January 15, 2021 at 16:42:20

In Reply to: US manufacturing: boom or bust? Well, that depends on whether or not posted by tinear on January 15, 2021 at 13:57:11:

The problem is largely around the education system, parenting, and general values.

I don't think America and Canada should be trying to bring back "bad" jobs. Coal Mining? Uhh no. Working long hours on an assembly line? These are not jobs people should be striving for. And while they paid very well at times when strong unions were alive and before a global economy took hold - the problem was the lack of a transferable skill set.

I remember working as an accounts payable clerk for a company called ESCO - a Steel foundry. In the end, and after 7 years I was earning around $40,000 a year. I was laid off and was working through temp agencies for an hourly salary which totaled around $30k a year. So a $10k or so pay cut I worked for Seagate Software, N-Compas Labs (which got bought by Mircosoft the day I started), and the BC Government. But I had a transferable skill - lots of companies needed accounting clerks - BUT I also knew that my job was replaced by Oracle Software (the reason I was laid off). So I knew that clerical work was going to go the way of the dodo. Smaller companies could use the pre-bought accounting software programs - Quicken or whatever they were called back then. Oracle for the large outfits.

So I changed my university degree focus.

The guys who worked in the plant pouring metal - these guys were easily making more than double my salary - close to $100k per year - and remember back in the middle 1990s.

These were the lunkheads in high school who dropped out or teachers mercifully passed them with a D so they didn't have to see the lunkheads for an extra year or three.

So when these guys lost their job and many of them did for being drunk or whatnot - well there is only one foundry. So what did I see them doing? Pumping gas for minimum wage. it's very tough to go from $100k to $18k a year - harder for them than me going from $40k to $30k. I was not living beyond my means so taking a pay cut stung but it meant fewer albums to buy - not a killer. I could still make the rent and eat.

Here in Hong Kong - before I came here - the school system was based on the British system of streaming. So in grade 6 everyone writes an exam and depending on how you do determines what high school you can go to. Band 1 is for elite students - future doctors, lawyers, teachers, engineers, business leaders, etc.

Band 2 is for the second tier - and so on down to band 5. Band 5 is for nonacademics and students with mental disabilities.

Hong Kong made band 5 specially focussed on hands-on jobs such as fixing refrigerators, driving a minibus, cooking classes, how to make coffee, sewing etc. All these things need to be done by someone after all.

The issue is that unlike America and Canada where they pay big salaries for non-educated jobs like pouring metal at the foundry or welders or even bus drivers, in Hong Kong all of these jobs are very lowly paid. You can make $60,000 a year as a Bus driver in Canada with a retirement plan and health and dental etc. In Hong Kong, you work 4 hours a day long 6 days a week, not 5. And you make around $30,000 in a much higher rent part of the world. Granted the tax rate is lower but you're still not doing well.

Eventually, HK got rid of band 4 and 5 schools - now there are three bands and the focus is on academics. They want to teach the unreachable come hell or high water.

This is the problem in the US - it's bigger in the US because the uneducated got used to making $90,000 a year working on an assembly line at GM and those jobs are gone and never coming back. It's harder to have something and lose it than never having it. So people are constantly fighting for something from the 1970s that is gone.

The other problem is that when you're 55 years old it's a lot tougher to go back and get re-educated in a new field. If you've worked with your hands all your life and now you have to go back and become a whizkid on computers that is not an easy task.

And college is quite expensive in the US (and Canada) so getting a degree has to now be weighed against the income you can get from that certification. I tell people - do you want to take out $50,000 in loans (and pay back $90,000) to be a teacher where for the first 10 years you will likely earn $25,000 a year - or do you skip all that - take a six-month driving certification and become a Bus driver and in a year or 2 make $60,000. Plus you are in school for 5.5 years out of the workforce not making any money. The bus driver over 5 years has a $250-$350k head start without any loans to pay back? And doesn't have to buy his passengers pencils, glue, paper, books, and food.

The point here is the older generation is screwed if they work jobs that can be replaced by workers abroad or through automation.

Schools need to start teaching business and world economics in grade 5 and it should be a core subject - how to save, how to make a budget, how to live within your means, how to invest, and how to choose a career path that can shield you from a job loss. Ie; have marketable skills.

The question is how do you get those folks who just aren't academically inclined to be able to function and live a dignified life in a modern era that passes them by or spits on them for having what is arbitrarily deemed to be an inferior job.

Yes, it may be harder to replace a given software engineer than a janitor and I am totally fine with the software engineer being paid considerably more - no problem. I just think the Janitor who works a 40 hour week should be able to afford rent, food some clothes, and a little entertainment value. I believe everyone should work and not mooch off the system - just that if a job is deemed to be needed why pay so little that they should be forced to starve.

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