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Critical thinking is in short supply there days....

Of course, a gathering of nearly a half million people will have some impact on spread. My issue with the study is that its conclusion is a highly exaggerated result of a quarter million new cases with questionable data using a unproven model.

Do you believe this one study or local scientists using real data?

Days after San Diego State researchers released a report that 266,000 coronavirus infections could be linked to a South Dakota motorcycle rally, health officials threw cold water on the San Diego County impact.

Two [infections] only," said county spokesman Michael Workman on Wednesday. "Separate cases. No outbreaks."

snip...

South Dakota state epidemiologist Josh Clayton told the Post: "What I have to say at this point is the results do not align with what we know for the impacts of the rally among attendees in the state of South Dakota."

snip...

Among their other findings: San Diego County was among 20 counties in the United States with the highest relative intensity of what they called Sturgis attendee inflow. (Los Angeles County was the only other one in California.)

Even the scientist that worked on the study is backing off his results:

"While San Diego County was a 'higher' inflow county, we do not conduct separate analyses of the effect of Sturgis on coronavirus cases in San Diego County alone," Sabia said.

The study said the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally represented a case where many of the "worst case scenarios" for superspreading occurred simultaneously.

And if you believe the Washington Post:

"The South Dakota Department of Health has reported 124 cases linked to the Sturgis rally through contact tracing," said The Washington Post, whose own survey of health departments found an additional 204 rally-linked cases in 20 states.

The point is not that large gatherings won't cause spreading, but rather that this study is just a model and one that uses data that simply can not be verified and appears quite suspect based on data on the ground.

-Rod


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