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In Reply to: And now, a large study showing... posted by tinear on July 15, 2020 at 07:31:29:
Here's the first paragraph of the study conclusions:
This study is the first to empirically examine the linkage between the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and the spread of COVID-19, which has been a point of concern among public health officials and the media (Bacon 2020; Goldberg 2020; Harmon and Rojas 2020). While it is almost certain that the protests caused a decrease in social distancing behavior among protest attendees, we demonstrate that effect of the protests on the social distancing behavior of the entire populat ion residing in counties wit h large urban protests was positive. Likewise, while it is possible that the protests caused an increase in the spread of COVID-19 among those who attended the protests, we demonstrate that the protests had little effect on the spread of COVID-19 for the entire population of the counties with protests during the more than three weeks following protest onset. In most cases, the estimated longer-run effect (post-21 days) was negative, though not statistically distinguishable from zero.
The study's hypothesis is that the protester's behavior was offset by the behavior of the non-protesters. You cannot conclude from the study or the data that the protests themselves did not lead to additional cases.
The only way to KNOW whether the protests caused additional cases is to test the protesters and compare their test results to the rest of the population. Otherwise, any increase from the protests is buried in the aggregate numbers because the number of protesters is a tiny fraction of the population.
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Follow Ups
- When are you going to start reading the suff you post before jumping to conclusions - Dave_K 07/15/2008:04:35 07/15/20 (8)
- I stand behind the article's data, conclusions: - tinear 10:10:58 07/15/20 (7)
- I'm not challenging the study's data and conclusions - Dave_K 14:09:19 07/15/20 (5)
- Not so sure what you're missing; - tinear 14:12:56 07/15/20 (4)
- That is not evidence that protests don't spread the virus - Dave_K 14:48:21 07/15/20 (3)
- I'll double down: overall, protesters were shown to lower infections. - tinear 05:41:09 07/16/20 (0)
- Statistics... - Rod M 18:40:22 07/15/20 (1)
- Apparently its different where you are, but where I am in NJ anyone can get tested, both..... - Rick W 21:38:19 07/15/20 (0)
- RE: I stand behind the article's data, conclusions: - Rod M 10:48:31 07/15/20 (0)
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