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In Reply to: More like very educated guesses posted by Batman on June 15, 2020 at 15:37:39:
I guarantee that Mike Osterholm knows more about epidemiology than I do. Obviously. But he immediately rubs me the wrong way by throwing out some made up numbers and facts.
BTW, 2.1M out of 330M does not equal 6.9%. It equals 0.64%. There's been a handful of localized, small scale serology studies, but nothing broad based enough to support a claim of 5% nationally.
Regarding cumulative dose, what I was responding to was his statement that the likelihood of infection depends on dose, and dose is a combination of time and amount. He implies that very brief exposure to an infected person can only transfer a small amount of virus and therefore it's low risk, and the longer you spend in the presence of the virus the greater the risk of getting infected. He also says that masks reduce the dose by some proportion, 50% by his hypothetical example, but also that time is equally important. The implication is that you can be safe for twice as long in the same environment if you're wearing the mask. Or 20 times as long if you're wearing an N95. In other words, it's like radiation exposure. While that seems plausible, it's conjecture.
In the cities with major outbreaks, hospital workers were spending full shifts tending to just Covid-19 patients. That's 30-40 and in some cases more hours per week in an environment with airborne virus. If his leaky bucket theory is right, an N95 mask couldn't keep workers safe in that environment. And if you recall, at the peak of the epidemic in the Northeast, there weren't enough N95s to go around.
So far during this pandemic, we've heard experts offering all sorts of different and conflicting opinions about the spread of the virus and what people should do. Many of them have been proven wrong already. So I'm not listening to any more hand waving or influenza comparisons. If he can't make his argument with data, it's just another opinion.
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- RE: More like very educated guesses - Dave_K 06/16/2011:16:11 06/16/20 (0)
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