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That's a lot of conjecture

Posted by Dave_K on June 15, 2020 at 14:20:40

In Reply to: "Little new here?" I strongly disagree. From the viability of a vaccine to the posted by tinear on June 15, 2020 at 11:44:27:

Perhaps he speaks in a way that's personally compelling to you, but I read the interview and saw nothing I haven't heard elsewhere in recent months. And it's nearly all just speculation about what this pandemic might or might not do based on previous epidemics caused by viruses that might or might not be similar to SARS-CoV-2.

There's an endless supply of expert opinions in this pandemic and they don't all agree, so I tend to only pay attention to people who can support their point with data rather than just "hand wave" at the problem.

Right away, he says 5% of the US population is infected. That's a made-up number. Nobody can possibly know the number because we've never taken a broad sample of the population.

He said all but one of the outbreaks in Wuhan came from transmission indoors. That's another made-up statistic. Actually, it's just a lie. During the peak of the virus in Wuhan, Chinese authorities were nowhere close to being able to trace each individual spreading event. We have a term for it: community spread, and it's why they closed off the whole city.

He makes a reasonable assumption that risk of infection is related to dose, but that's still just an assumption. We don't know what dose level is required for infection or how much that varies from individual to individual. We also don't know whether the amount of virus an infected person sheds depends on intensity of exercise. So it's a bit cavalier for him to say you're not at risk from brief exposures to infected people outside. I guess we'll find out in a couple weeks as the effect (or lack thereof) of the protests becomes apparent.

If everything he says is true: the virus primarily spreads indoors, the chance of infection depends on cumulative dose over time, and masks offer limited protective value, then we should be seeing A LOT more cases from hospital workers and first responders. In cities with major outbreaks, they should all be infected by now. But they're not.

He says there's major outbreaks in China. There is currently *one* minor outbreak in China today, around a supermarket in Beijing, and country-wide there's less than 200 active cases.

He says that obesity is the #1 risk factor for people under the age of 55. I'd like to know what that's based on. The studies I've seen before from China, New York, and the UK's NHS all found it to be a risk factor, but to varying degrees. Diabetes keeps coming out at or near the top, and as you know there's a strong correlation between obesity and diabetes and the studies I've seen so far haven't controlled for one while examining the other. So he may be right about this one, but I'd like to know what it's based on.

Sorry this post has dragged on so long, but I want to make one more point. Like many people, he presumes eventual herd immunity at 60-70% infection rate. That's just a guess. We really don't know much about this virus and immunity. There's never been a pandemic caused by a coronavirus before. Influenza is not a coronavirus, so we shouldn't just assume this is going to come and go in the same pattern as past flu pandemics. It's already proven the warm weather/cold weather theory wrong.

People should be more careful around the topic because it leads to unsafe behavior. If Joe Schmoe thinks it's inevitable that they'll be exposed, and they just need to keep the old folks away until herd immunity kicks in, it leads directly to unsafe behavior. As in, fuck it, let's party and speed the process up.

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Kimber Kable

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