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Not this herd immunity crap again

Posted by Dave_K on June 2, 2020 at 08:42:35

In Reply to: Covid statistics and analysis reprinted with permission of the author posted by B. Scarpia on June 1, 2020 at 18:33:53:

The author claims that antibody tests in U.K., California, and New York reported that over 20% of the population in each area tested had antibodies.

That's mostly untrue. There was a result of 21% in New York City proper. The UK result was 5% overall and 17% in London. There have been two rounds of testing in CA. The first was a widely criticized study in Santa Clara county that estimated 4.1% had been infected. The second was in LA county and found 2.1% had been infected.

He also claims that people with antibodies are immune. That is suspected, but has not been proven. And assuming it's true, we don't know how long the immunity lasts.

Another unsubstantiated claim is that a significant portion of the population has natural immunity. There is no data to support that. It's pure speculation and impossible to know because we have no idea how many people are being exposed. We don't know how many have been infected either.

Further, he argues that children are largely immune and cannot infect others. There's no data to support that either, and it's highly implausible because it's not true of similar infectious diseases. He's citing low case rates among children, but the more likely reason for that is a lower rate of exposure. Kids aren't in group living situations, aren't going to work, aren't shopping, etc.

He also attributes the declining trend of new cases and deaths to growing herd immunity. That is impossible because antibody test sampling around the world consistently indicates we're far, far below the threshold required. Even the NYC estimate is only 1/4 to 1/3 of the way there.

The decline in new cases and deaths is easily explained by the various closures and social distancing reducing the transmission rate. And that explanation doesn't require speculation. You can see cause and effect in the data from all over the world.

This is just another example of uninformed speculation and denial. What is it about reading this stuff that appeals to you? I really don't get it.

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Analog Engineering Associates

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