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Sweden is currently #7 in deaths/million

San Marino (1238)
Belgium (820)
Andorra (660)
Spain (580)
UK (575)
Italy (554)
Sweden (443)
France (442)
St. Maarten (350)
Netherlands (348)
Ireland (334)
USA (323)

San Marino, Andorra, and St Maarten are too small to be statistically significant. Belgium counts differently. Spain, Italy, France, Netherlands, and Ireland are all on the tail end, and their death counts aren't going up much. The UK has been on a steady decline, and should reach the tail in a few weeks if they don't let up. So they will probably pass Spain.

USA is also on a steady decline, but it's a slow decline with a lot of variation from state to state. NY is reaching the tail end and a lot of Northeast states are following, but other states like CA are still seeing increases in cases. I doubt we'll catch up to France, but it's possible.

Even though Sweden looks flat in the daily count of new cases, they are seeing a declining trend of deaths. So they are unlikely to catch Italy, Spain, UK. In retrospect, there will be arguments for and against the Swedish response. Those who value life over employment will look at Sweden as a failure, while the other side will look at their relatively small GDP decline and say they made the right choice.




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