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In Reply to: Is it horrendous? Or is it like that of many other "advanced" countries in the world? posted by Chris from Lafayette on May 25, 2020 at 18:02:17:
Every country with a higher number of deaths per capita is further along than we are with the exception of Sweden.
Go to that same table, and select the "Yesterday" option at the top of the table. That will reveal one day's worth of new cases and new deaths for each country. Then sort the table by "Deaths/1M pop". You'll see that the daily increase in new cases and new deaths is much higher for the USA than any of the countries above it.
Right now, for the USA, it's showing +19,790 new cases yesterday, and +505 new deaths. Now let's look at the UK, which peaked around the same time as the US. For the UK, it's 1625 new cases and 121 new deaths. I broke out the calculator to normalize by population. Per capita, the US and UK have about the same daily death rate, but the rate of new cases is about 2.5x higher in the USA. The curve of daily deaths typically lags the curve of new cases by 2-3 weeks. Ergo, in 2-3 weeks we should expect the per capita daily death rate here to be at least double that of the UK.
Right now, Sweden has about double the daily death rate of the US. But the rate of new cases is about 50% higher here than Sweden. None of the other countries who are currently above the US in Deaths/1M pop are even close. They're all on the tail end of this wave.
Here's my point. At the rate we're going, we're going to pass Italy, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, and maybe even Sweden on the Deaths/1M pop leaderboard. I'll leave Belgium out of this because they count deaths differently.
If you're not bored with data yet, look at the data state by state. Go over to the John's Hopkins map , select the US on the left hand pane, then click the "Admin1" tab. That will reveal a list of states. Next, go to the graph on the bottom right and select the "Daily Cases" tab. Now if you click on a state, you'll see the "curve" for each state.
Note that among the leaders, NY, NJ, MA, PA, and MI are way past their peaks and have been on a steady decline. That's driving the overall US numbers down and giving people a false sense of relief. There are many other states whose trends are going in the wrong direction: CA, IL, TX, MD, VA, MN, WI, NC, AZ, AL, MS, UT, NV, ND, ME. Some of them are pretty alarming, like VA and MN. And most of those states are starting to unwind restrictions even while their caseload is going up.
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Follow Ups
- There is a big difference if you dig a little deeper - Dave_K 05/26/2007:16:01 05/26/20 (5)
- I don't dispute what you say - the point is that. . . - Chris from Lafayette 11:07:41 05/26/20 (0)
- If only we had all the data.... - Rod M 08:17:37 05/26/20 (3)
- We have some catching up still to do - Dave_K 10:40:47 05/26/20 (0)
- RE: If only we had all the data.... - greyscale 10:35:29 05/26/20 (1)
- EXACTLY! Let the naysayers have their way with THAT!.... - TWB 11:11:51 05/26/20 (0)
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