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Put yourself in Putin's shoes. What would you do?

Posted by vacuous (A) on January 5, 2022 at 14:30:47

In Reply to: Yup - we could sure use that uranium too! posted by Chris from Lafayette on January 5, 2022 at 12:55:09:

You talk of 'color revolutions' as if these things are all CIA sponsored overthows of legitimate governments. For me 'color revolution' is just an overused phrase. Tiresome. And worthy of being discarded. A lot like how every scandal is now tagged as some kind of [whatever]gate'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_"-gate"_scandals_and_controversies

No I don't see the USA as the predominiant world evil, as you and Ghost seem to think. I see every nation state and government as problematic and unworthy of blind trust. No, I don't root for any team, but to continue your 'playbook' sports analogy, some teams [and countries] are better and some worse than others.

My political views correspond pretty well with those of John Mearsheimer. From the Wikipedia page on Realism in International Relations: "World politics is always and necessarily a field of conflict among actors pursuing wealth and power." Nasty stuff in other words. Mearsheimer has argued that Ukraine stands within Russia's 'sphere of influence', just as the USA proclaimed Cuba as within it's sphere of influence during the Cuban missile crisis. The USA is steeped in this 'sphere of influence thing'. Monroe Doctrine and all that.

Mearsheimer wrote an important essay you should know about if you don't already. Quoting from his Wikipedia page:

"Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault. The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin," which was published in Foreign Affairs. The essay was highly critical of the US policy since the end of the Cold War towards Russia. Mearsheimer argued that Russian intervention in Crimea and Ukraine had been motivated by what he saw as the irresponsible strategic objectives of NATO in Eastern Europe. He compared NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, led by NATO, and the planned inclusion of Ukraine to the hypothetical scenario of a Chinese military alliance in North America: "Imagine the American outrage if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico."

In firm agreement here. NATO in former Soviet territory is a very bad idea. So you and I have common ground. Where we differ is about the nature of the Ukrainian revolution which ousted the Yanukovich regime. You see that as a CIA backed overthrow. I see it as a grass roots revolution of ordinary people against corrupt government.

No point in arguing about that. We've been over this ground a half dozen times already.

Now, back to Putin. He has legitimate interest in Kazakhstan, which was a Soviet Republic for the better part of 100 years, and Russian territory dating back into the early 18th c. In 1980 forty percent of the population was Russian, but now that's down to twenty percent. Kazakhstan's oil, uranium, and the Cosmodrome make it of value to Russia, and Putin won't let anarchy rule down there. He needs a cooperative govt. So what will he do? Best if he clears out Tokayev's govt and woos the public by lowering the prices of essential goods.

You are crazy if you think the West is going to step in and take over Kazakhstan in a color revolution. Though people in the CIA might dream of that, it's so far outside of our sphere of influence there's just no chance. More worrisome would be if Kazakhs installed an Islamist government, which would be not only hostile to the West, but also hostile to Russia.

It's in Putin's interest to avoid a military crackdown in Kazakhstan too, as that would de-legitimize Russian influence in the region. I'm not sure Putin can play the diplomatic slow hand and avoid open conflict, because he does like to make a show of military strength, as he is now doing with Ukraine.

Best simply to replace Tokayev's regime as quietly as possible, with minimal use of force.

Your thoughts?

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