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A word from one of the rats

Rick W wrote, "I'm not sure the hifi biz really *is* in trouble. If the ship was sinking the rats would be leaving, not climbing aboard."

I agree, but with a caveat. There is an ongoing niche market for high performance audio gear. This equipment is aimed at the roughly one million audiophiles world wide. This small segment of buyers is enough to keep small niche companies in good shape, but of course not enough to sustain the consumer electronics giants such as Sony, Panasonic, etc.

The picture is very different, however, in the mainstream market. In this segment the companies have unrealistic expectations of pots of gold at the end of the rainbow. For example, when they create a new product category that proves popular, such as CD or DVD or iPod, they make bucketloads of money for a few years. But at some point the market is saturated and they are back down to a level of sustainable sales. Two-channel audio equipment is well past the peak of its growth curve and is now in a sustainable, mature market.

The problem is that sustainable sales are not enough to keep these beasts (and their shareholders) satisfied -- they got used to making bucketloads of money. That's why they say "two channel is dead". So they are constantly trying to invent something new that will hit the jackpot. Hence the new formats that nobody wants -- DVHS, SACD, DVD-Audio, Blu-Ray, HD-DVD, DCC, Mini-Disc, DAT, etc, etc, etc.

It's a lot like the mainstream music business. They know that only one in ten new acts will make them money. They aren't smart enough to know ahead of time which ones, so they just crank out product, throw it against the wall, and hope something sticks.


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